Calculated Risk

Most-linked posts?

1. Off-topic: Acceptance and Response
   8 people · 8 mentions · first linked 2009-03-03
2. November 21 Covid-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations
   5 people · 6 mentions · first linked 2020-01-01
3. /2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpnow.html
   3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2025-03-03
4. Vehicles Sales Increase to 15.67M SAAR in September; Up 15% YoY
   2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2023-10-03
5. Remembering Paul Volcker: 2005 Speech at Stanford
   2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2019-12-09
6. The Next Financial Crisis
   2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2025-08-11
7. /2013/06/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html
   2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2013-09-17
8. /2016/11/real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in.html
   2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2016-11-29
9. The Future is still Bright
   2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2014-06-30
10. Democrats actually prefer smaller government over Republicans
    2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2014-10-07

What Hacker News says?

1. pjmorris · 2021-05-27

   I acquired a finance/economics blogroll during the financial crisis. The ones I still read are: 'Naked Capitalism", "Yves Smith", https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/ "The Big Picture", Barry Ritholtz, https://ritholtz.com/ "Calculated Risk", Bill McBride, https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

   Comment linking /

   on “Ask HN: Favorite Blogs by Individuals?”
2. MaysonL · 2013-12-02

   Submitted Will Google Kill my Blog on December 6th? as a story · 301 points

   HN discussion
3. b_emery · 2016-11-09

   I'll bet he doesn't know that the pubic sector shrank more under Obama than the previous presidents: "The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs). However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama…

   Comment linking /2014/10/public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs.html

   on “Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter [pdf]”
4. noheartanthony · 2009-08-19

   Submitted Calculated Risk: U.S. Population Distribution by Age, 1950 through 2050 as a story · 34 points

   HN discussion
5. brownbat · 2013-03-23

   If disability is masking unemployment, we should expect anomalies in other labor statistics, like labor force participation rate, or per capita employment. Labor force participation has been declining the last few years, but at least some of that is aging population and massive recession. And despite the decline, the rate remains well within historical bounds. I'm glancing at Bureau of Labor Statistics charts, not s…

   Comment linking /2012/02/graphs-unemployment-rate-participation.html

   on “Unfit for work”
6. speckx · 2025-11-18

   Submitted LA Ports: Oct Imports and Exports down YoY. Exports down 11th straight month as a story · 26 points

   HN discussion
7. FabHK · 2022-08-02Recommends

   Agreed, Calculated Risk was required reading at the time. So much insight. (On Tanta's passing: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/11/sad-news-tanta-pa... )

   Comment linking /2008/11/sad-news-tanta-passes-away.html

   on “Understanding Jane Street”
8. b_emery · 2025-04-05

   Submitted Recession Watch as a story · 21 points

   HN discussion
9. mooreds · 2022-08-02Recommends

   I liked The Big Short. On a different but related note, I also really enjoyed the Compleat Ubernerd, written by Tanta, all about mortgage servicing in the mid 2000s: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/07/compleat-ubernerd... I'm not sure how it has aged (no Dodd-Frank updates, the author has passed away) but it was glorious in its time.

   Comment linking /2007/07/compleat-ubernerd.html

   on “Understanding Jane Street”
10. kvh · 2009-06-10

    Submitted California State Controller: Out of Cash in 50 Days as a story · 17 points

    HN discussion
11. pjmorris · 2017-09-09

    > That's funny, my takeaway was that the vast majority of the US has incredibly affordable housing. What are you comparing against? In the US, the old rule of thumb (up until the ~1990's) was that you shouldn't buy more house than 2X your income. That's more affordable than what is depicted here. EDIT: I've added link to a Calculated Risk post on the ratio between US house prices and median income since 1976 [0]. By…

    Comment linking /2017/07/house-prices-to-national-average-wage.html

    on “How Many Years of Life Does That House Cost?”
12. speckx · 2025-03-20

    Submitted Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 28.5% YoY as a story · 15 points

    HN discussion
13. dzabriskie · 2021-09-20

    This is not accurate. The average down payment is currently 5% per the latest Urban Institute Research. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/09/urban-institute-m...

    Comment linking /2021/09/urban-institute-median-95-ltv-for-new.html

    on “Home Price to Income Ratio”
14. cwan · 2010-08-15

    Submitted Why do I expect the unemployment rate to increase? as a story · 11 points

    HN discussion
15. lnwlebjel · 2022-10-04Recommends

    For a data centric view on the larger economy and an assessment of leading indicators I highly recommend this blog: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/predicting-next-r...

    Comment linking /2022/09/predicting-next-recession.html

    on “Lowest “Who is hiring?” Post Count in 30 Months”
16. erikstarck · 2010-07-19

    Submitted What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? $15 Trillion of Debt in Default as a story · 9 points

    HN discussion
17. confluence · 2012-07-15Recommends

    Calculated Risk ( http://www.calculatedriskblog.com ) - I highly recommend this awesome blog for my fellow HNers - it plays host to great discussions/links/facts on the economy, housing, finance and the global/domestic (US) recovery. They did a series on the upcoming SF rent/real estate bubble, as well as the return of housing back in early 2012. The direct links for those who want more detail: http://www.calculated…

    Comment linking /2012/04/private-money-coming-back-into-housing.html

    on “What are the most intellectually stimulating websites you know of?”
18. mooreds · 2025-08-17

    Submitted The Next Financial Crisis as a story · 8 points

    HN discussion
19. b_emery · 2014-05-22

    > When interest rates are low, prices are high, and when rates are high, prices are low. The data says otherwise: "“There’s no strong correlation between interest rates and home prices,” ... The bottom line is other factors (like a stronger economy) have a bigger impact on house prices than changes in mortgage rates." [1] [1] http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/06/house-prices-and-m...

    Comment linking /2013/06/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html

    on “Is It Better to Rent or Buy?”
20. speckx · 2025-03-13

    Submitted 1.1M Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024 as a story · 8 points

    HN discussion
21. sudonim · 2011-09-04

    I've been following the housing bust. In 2009, I remember reading a resignation later by a guy who made his "F * you money" betting for a housing collapse. He blasted the big banks, ivy leaguers, and old boys network. I bought complex derivatives (SRS, SKF) but lost betting against the market. I read http://calculatedriskblog.com for a while and educated myself about the macro factors in the markets. Through "calcul…

    Comment linking /

    on “My job is to watch dreams die”
22. acconrad · 2018-08-14

    Submitted California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 3% Year-Over-Year as a story · 8 points

    HN discussion
23. MaysonL · 2022-11-14

    https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/11/covid-nov-11-2022...

    Comment linking /2022/11/covid-nov-11-2022-update-on-cases.html

    on “Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins”
24. drocer88 · 2019-09-02

    Submitted Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions as a story · 6 points

    HN discussion
25. seanp2k2 · 2022-03-04

    agree; when I look at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/03/friday-february-e... I don’t come to the conclusion that now is the best time.

    Comment linking /2022/03/friday-february-employment-report.html

    on “Tim Cook tells employees the return to offices will begin on April 11th”
26. speckx · 2026-01-06

    Submitted Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-Year in December as a story · 5 points

    HN discussion
27. nrau · 2020-01-01Recommends

    For solid data points and analysis on how the US economy is performing I follow: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ The blog is authored by Bill McBride who correctly called the 2008 downturn and housing market blow-up. I find his data points and corresponding analysis to be much better than any coverage in major media organizations, and it has majorly influenced the financial decisions that I have made over the pa…

    Comment linking /

    on “Ask HN: What niche blogs are worthwhile to follow?”
28. drocer88 · 2020-03-14

    Submitted The Sudden Economic Stop as a story · 5 points

    HN discussion
29. krschultz · 2015-02-03

    I generally agree with your comment, but I think you are oversimplifying the demographics and that leads to your 'why' question. If you get a bit more specific with numbers at various ages and cohorts, plus discouraged workers, you don't have a big hole in the arithmetic. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/06/demographics-prime...

    Comment linking /2014/06/demographics-prime-and-near-prime.html

    on “The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment”
30. cwan · 2010-04-06

    Submitted Was there "a commercial real estate bubble in India too"? as a story · 5 points

    HN discussion

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• SState Farmstatefarm.com
• CConversable Economist - In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help conversableeconomist.com
• JJohn Hemptonbrontecapital.blogspot.com