Top all-time · #1851
MishTalk
Personal blog · mishtalk.comeconomicspolitics
MishTalk is a personal blog at mishtalk.com about economics and politics. Since 2016, 40 different Hacker News readers have linked it 49 times, most often “Binance's Alleged Crypto Audit Failed, Not Even Its Auditor Would Vouch for It”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-11-02, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (17) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
Economics blog by a macro writer covering the US economy, markets, mortgage rates, shipping and polling. Commenters cite its posts as sources and debate how credible the author is.
- Recommended for · 1 comments
- One commenter says the blog's predictions were more often correct than Nate Silver's.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 17 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Global Economic Trend Analysis
Most-linked posts?
- Binance's Alleged Crypto Audit Failed, Not Even Its Auditor Would Vouch for It2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2022-12-12
What Hacker News says?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/purchasing-power-parity-silli... GDP PPP is meaningless for both geopolitical power and what it means for the average citizen. The average citizen in EU is much better than the one in China/India despite what the PPP numbers suggest as GDP per captaincy matters more. China and Russia resort to bartering due to US sanctions because GDP matters, and not GDP PPP [1]. PPP should be used to…
Comment linking /economics/purchasing-power-parity-silliness-and-the-myth-china-passed-the-us-in-gdp/
on “Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals”Submitted Was the Real Jobs Revision Negative 818,000 or Negative 915,000? as a story · 53 points
HN discussionThe source you cite is written by a man with literally zero training in economics or econometrics. He lost his job in 911 and started a blog in the GFC that gained an audience ( https://mishtalk.com/economics/uk-high-school-student-asks-m... ). Good for him. You assert with absolutely no basis in fact or any supporting citation that "there is a pretty easy path to getting better results." The BLS is run by the world…
Comment linking /economics/uk-high-school-student-asks-mish-about-life-as-an-investment-advisor/
on “Terence Tao on the suspension of UCLA grants”Submitted The Fed's Big Problem, There Are Two Economies but Only One Interest Rate as a story · 52 points
HN discussionThe US BLS does seem to have a bit of a history [0] with their job reporting though. The process they've been using appears biased to over report initially and then get revised down over time. I'm sure there are a lot of political considerations, but from a raw statistical perspective there is a pretty easy path to getting better results. They could eliminate the optimistic bias and aim for accuracy. If it were me I…
Comment linking /economics/in-honor-of-labor-day-lets-review-bls-job-revisions/
on “Terence Tao on the suspension of UCLA grants”Submitted Wisconsin Judge Rules 7 Health Care Workers Cannot Switch Jobs as a story · 37 points
HN discussion"538 didn't give any predictions on the primaries." They gave predictions for every state during the primaries. Also see: https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/19/nate-silvers-self-serving-co...
Comment linking /2016/05/19/nate-silvers-self-serving-confession-reflections-on-being-wrong/
on “How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages”Submitted McKinsey Study Shows 81% of US Worse Off Than in 2005, France 63%, Italy 97% as a story · 33 points
HN discussionNate Silver has been criticized a lot by Mish ( http://mishtalk.com/ ) and Mish was more often correct with his predictions than Nate. (What was Nate's prediction of Trump becoming the candidate? "Trump's chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent.") Nate is strongly biased in favor of Hillary. That is fine but that is not scientific. Nassim Taleb said about Nate: "55% "probability" for Trump then 20% 10 d late…
Comment linking /
on “How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages”Submitted Powell: “We understand better how little we understand about inflation” as a story · 24 points
HN discussionThey haven't been caught red-handed, but their reserve claims are highly suspect[1]. Predictions that Binance is next are pretty credible in my mind, and the DOJ is already looking[2] in that direction. [1] https://mishtalk.com/economics/binances-alleged-crypto-audit... [2] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/12/doj-divided-over...
Comment linking /economics/binances-alleged-crypto-audit-failed-not-even-its-auditor-would-vouch-for-it
on “SBF Arrested by Bahamian Authorities”Submitted California Bans Calculus from High School Because of Racism as a story · 24 points
HN discussionThis article first published 2 days ago. Here's one from April 30: https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/rumors-claim-seattle-ports... April 29: https://www.king5.com/article/news/verify/what-we-can-verify... April 28: https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/port-of-seattle-empty-ze... April 27: https://mishtalk.com/economics/shipping-collapse-port-worker... April 25: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/tariff-tit-for-tat…
Comment linking /economics/shipping-collapse-port-workers-and-truckers-wait-for-the-ships-to-come-in/
on “'We Currently Have No Container Ships,' Seattle Port Says”Submitted Wendy’s to Employ Self-Service Kiosks at 6,000 Locations as a story · 14 points
HN discussionReminder that the bottom 50% own 1% of the wealth. https://mishtalk.com/economics/net-wealth-distribution-the-b...
Comment linking /economics/net-wealth-distribution-the-bottom-50-have-1-of-the-wealth
on “Taxes Are for the Little People”Submitted 25% of College Degrees Have a Negative Return on Investment as a story · 11 points
HN discussionMy suggestion is reading one/some Antony Sutton books, simply to visualize a bit the fact that money is not anymore and since decades and decades a shared unit of measure of nearly anything being instead a virtual substrate of nearly anything under private control. With that in mind you can metabolize the fact that the actual dollar hegemony is at the end because it's tangible value is less and less accepted. Russia…
Comment linking /economics/how-russia-avoids-oil-sanctions-transfer-at-sea-to-destination-unknown
on “Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?”Submitted The Depopulation Bomb, Two Economists Make the Case for Humans as a story · 8 points
HN discussionHow about one that isn't used only to influence voters? Read Talebs tweets: https://mishtalk.com/2016/08/07/nassim-telab-blasts-nate-sil... https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/794608806072352769
Comment linking /2016/08/07/nassim-telab-blasts-nate-silver-about-election-odds-in-series-of-tweets/
on “The Facebook bubble just popped”Submitted Waymo Picked Up 4M Rides in 2024, Tesla Had Zero as a story · 8 points
HN discussionJust from my last very few days feeds: - https://nypost.com/2024/03/19/us-news/less-than-one-in-three... - https://mishtalk.com/economics/half-of-downtown-pittsburgh-o... - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/baltimore... and https://buyintobmore.baltimorecity.gov/ Well... It's clear that the modern city, the modern Fordlandia, today named Telosa, Prospera, Arkadag, Innopolis, ... is just a farm of hu…
Comment linking /economics/half-of-downtown-pittsburgh-office-space-could-be-empty-in-4-years/
on “Return to Office Is a Mistake”Submitted When Does US Federal Debt Reach an Unsustainable Level? as a story · 8 points
HN discussionhttps://mishtalk.com/economics/ford-to-layoff-at-least-1000-...
Comment linking /economics/ford-to-layoff-at-least-1000-workers-ev-startup-lordstown-motors-dies/
on “Ford to lay off workers as it focuses on electric vehicles”Submitted Carvana is worth more than Ford as a story · 7 points
HN discussionThe author is a macro economy writer with a 10 years old Twitter account. Most of the article is a quote, then his personal opinion. https://mishtalk.com/about/ I'm all for calling out automated content written by AI/LLM but this one doesn't seem to be.
Comment linking /about/
on “Check out the new US passport”Submitted How Many More Ridiculous Green Energy Projects Will Fail? as a story · 5 points
HN discussionHere is a normalized chart to show the rate increases [0]. [0]: https://mishtalk.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%...
Comment linking /.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1024/MTk3NDExMjAwNDkxODU2OTAy/loan-level-price-adjustment-matrix-changes-may-1.webp
on “Fannie Mae New Rule: The Better Your Credit Score the Higher Your Mortgage Rate”Submitted Check out the new US passport as a story · 4 points
HN discussionFannie Mae's matrix is (IMO) intentionally misleading to hide the disproportionate rate increases. Here is a normalized chart showing the rate increases [0]. [0]: https://mishtalk.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%...
Comment linking /.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1024/MTk3NDExMjAwNDkxODU2OTAy/loan-level-price-adjustment-matrix-changes-may-1.webp
on “Fannie Mae New Rule: The Better Your Credit Score the Higher Your Mortgage Rate”Submitted Scientists Conclude Dire Climate Change Models Were Wrong, Now What? as a story · 4 points
HN discussion
